An owner in a Rhode Island landlord group asked a question I hear from Fall River owners too. The population barely moved. So how did we end up "needing" so much more housing? Are the cheap apartments really gone, or do they just never come up for rent?
It's a fair question. And part of the answer is yes, a lot of the cheap ones never come up. But that doesn't mean the shortage is fake. It means people are counting the wrong thing.
Housing isn't used by people. It's used by households.
Fall River's population grew. Its households grew faster.
Here are the city's own Census numbers.
| Measure | 2010 | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 88,857 (2010 Census) | 94,000 (2020 Census); 95,298 (July 2025 estimate) |
| Households | 38,759 (2010 Census) | 41,991 (American Community Survey, 2020–2024) |
| People per household | about 2.29 | 2.20 (ACS, 2020–2024) |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts, Fall River and the 2010 Census household count.
Read that middle row twice. More than 3,200 extra households need a door to put a key in. Every one of those needs a unit, whether it's one person or five.
When the average household shrinks, the same number of people needs more apartments. A couple splits up. That's two leases. A grandmother who used to live with family now lives alone. That's another one. A 26-year-old moves out of his parents' house. Another one. None of that shows up as "population growth." All of it shows up at my desk as a rental application.
That is not a population problem. That is a household problem.
Who actually decides Massachusetts "needs more housing"?
It isn't a vibe, and it isn't a Facebook argument. In Massachusetts there are two separate things people mix up.
1. The state's production target. In February 2025, the Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities released A Home for Everyone, the state's first comprehensive housing plan. It says Massachusetts needs at least 222,000 more year-round homes from 2025 to 2035.
Here's the part that answers the "population isn't growing" question directly. The state's own housing demand analysis says that even if the population doesn't grow at all, demand still goes up:
- About 493,000 Millennial and Gen Z residents are expected to form households over the decade.
- Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation are projected to free up only about 391,000 homes as they move away, pass away, or change housing situations.
- Net result in the state's no-growth scenario: about 73,000 more households. That number comes from the state's model, not from subtracting the two lines above (493,000 minus 391,000 would be 102,000). The analysis also accounts for people moving to and from Massachusetts and for changing housing needs across the life cycle.
- Separately, about 57,200 homes are needed for overcrowded and doubled-up families, young adults living with parents or roommates, and people living in shelters.
- About 51,400 more homes for sale or for rent are needed to reach a healthy vacancy rate.
Those are building blocks, not a sum. Add up the lines above and you will not get 222,000, and you are not supposed to. The 222,000 is the state's minimum to close today's supply shortfall and meet demand under a mid-range population growth scenario from 2025 to 2035, not the zero-growth case. The same analysis also counts about 9,600 homes to replace year-round homes expected to convert to seasonal use.
The state is also clear about what the number is not. It says the target "is not a measure of how many affordable homes are needed." It's an overall supply number.
The state tracks progress publicly. Its count: residential addresses went from 3,073,303 in November 2024 to 3,107,864 in November 2025, a net gain of about 34,500 homes.
2. The MBTA Communities law. This one is zoning, not building. Section 3A of M.G.L. c. 40A requires cities with transit service to have at least one district where multifamily housing is allowed by right.
Fall River is classified as a Commuter Rail community. Under the state's requirements table, the city had 44,346 housing units in 2020 and must zone for at least 6,652 multifamily units, on at least 50 acres, with 40% of the district near the station. The Herald News reported in January 2025 that Fall River is fully compliant, with its district near the Fall River Depot station on Davol Street.
As the city engineer told the Herald News: "That doesn't mean a single one has to be built." The law requires room on the map. It doesn't require shovels.
So when someone says "the state says we need more housing," ask which one they mean. The 222,000 is a demand estimate. The MBTA law is a zoning rule. Neither one is a quota of new buildings on your street.
Are the affordable apartments real, just hidden?
Partly, yes. This is where the original question is sharper than people give it credit for.
The Census reports a median gross rent for Fall River of $1,155 a month (ACS, 2020–2024). That survey asks people who already rent what they pay. It includes the tenant who has been in the same unit for twelve years at a rent nobody has touched.
Now compare that with what's being asked today. Our scan of Facebook Marketplace listings on October 6, 2026, as posted by listers, found the cheapest Fall River 2-bedroom asks at $1,650, with the 2-bedroom band running $1,650 to $1,995. These are lister-reported asking rents, not verified leases. But the gap is the point.
That $1,155 apartment exists. You just can't rent it. Someone's living in it, and they aren't leaving.
The same Census page says 88.5% of Fall River residents lived in the same house a year earlier. Most people stay put. The cheap units stay full. The only units you can actually apply for are the ones that just turned over, and those get priced at today's market.
That is not a hidden supply. That is a supply that's taken.
Why nobody is moving
Owners feel this from the sale side too. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's working paper on mortgage rate lock-in found that for every percentage point market rates sit above a homeowner's existing rate, the chance they sell drops by 18.1%. FHFA estimated lock-in prevented 1.33 million U.S. home sales between mid-2022 and the end of 2023, and pushed prices up 5.7%.
When an owner with a 3% mortgage won't sell, the renter who wanted to buy his house doesn't leave the apartment. The apartment never lists. The next renter in line never gets it. One frozen move freezes three.
Turnover doesn't replace supply. Low turnover is what a short supply looks like from inside.
What about the Boomers? Will we have too much housing in 10 to 20 years?
The state ran that math. It's in the same demand analysis: roughly 391,000 homes freed up by older residents over the decade, against roughly 493,000 new younger households. The homes coming loose don't cover the people coming up.
Nobody can promise what happens to prices in 2045. I won't pretend to. But the official forecast for the next ten years is not a glut.
How tight is it right now?
Massachusetts had a rental vacancy rate of 3.4% in 2025, according to the Census Bureau's annual vacancy survey. It was 2.5% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024. The state's own plan counts 51,400 homes just to reach a healthy vacancy rate.
For an owner, that tightness has a number we publish. Our median lease-up in Fall River is 26 days across 312 listings. A tight market doesn't mean every unit fills itself. A unit that's priced right and turned right fills fast. A unit that's overpriced or tired still sits, and you're the one who eats the empty days.
What this means if you own a Fall River rental
The shortage doesn't mean you can ask anything. It means the tenant who's living in your unit is worth more to you than ever, because every turnover resets the clock, the cost, and the risk.
The one thing I'd do this month: pull your rent roll and find the tenant who's been in place the longest. Know what a turn on that unit would actually cost you, and what the unit would rent for today. That's the gap the whole debate is about, and it's sitting in your own building.
Fall River landlord FAQs
Does Fall River need more housing if the population isn't growing much?
Yes, according to Census data on households. Fall River's population rose from 88,857 in 2010 to 94,000 in 2020, but households grew from 38,759 to 41,991 (ACS 2020–2024) as household size fell to 2.20. More households need more units even when headcount barely moves.
Who sets Massachusetts housing targets?
The Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities. Its 2025 plan, A Home for Everyone, estimates the state needs at least 222,000 more year-round homes from 2025 to 2035. That is a demand estimate, not a building quota for any city.
What does the MBTA Communities Act require in Fall River?
Fall River is a Commuter Rail community under Section 3A of M.G.L. c. 40A. It must zone a district allowing at least 6,652 multifamily units by right, on at least 50 acres, with 40% near the station. The law requires zoning capacity, not construction.
Are there affordable apartments that just don't turn over?
Many are occupied, not missing. The Census median gross rent in Fall River is $1,155 (ACS 2020–2024), which includes long-term tenants. 88.5% of residents lived in the same house a year earlier, so few of those units ever reach the open market.
Will Baby Boomers selling their homes cause a housing glut?
The state's own forecast says no for the next decade. It projects older residents will free about 391,000 homes from 2025 to 2035, while about 493,000 younger residents form new households.
If you own in Fall River and want to know what your longest-tenured unit would rent for today, call us at Fortified Realty. We'll show you the number.
Educational only. Not legal or financial advice.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts, Fall River city: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/fallrivercitymassachusetts/POP010220
- Fall River 2010 Census household count (via Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_River,_Massachusetts
- Mass.gov, A Home for Everyone press release (Feb 6, 2025): https://www.mass.gov/news/healey-driscoll-administration-releases-states-first-ever-comprehensive-housing-plan
- Mass.gov, Future Housing Demand in Massachusetts: https://www.mass.gov/future-housing-demand-in-massachusetts
- Mass.gov, Progress toward 222,000: https://www.mass.gov/info-details/a-home-for-everyone-progress-toward-222000
- Mass.gov, Multi-Family Zoning Requirement for MBTA Communities: https://www.mass.gov/info-details/multi-family-zoning-requirement-for-mbta-communities
- Mass.gov, MBTA Community Categories and Requirements (Jan 14, 2025): https://www.mass.gov/doc/section-3a-regulations-community-categories-and-reqs/download
- Herald News, Jan 10, 2025: https://www.heraldnews.com/story/news/2025/01/10/mbta-communities-law-which-south-coast-rail-towns-are-complying/77583738007/
- Herald News, Jun 13, 2024: https://www.heraldnews.com/story/news/local/2024/06/13/fall-river-has-housing-to-comply-with-mbta-communities-zoning-law/74063160007/
- FHFA Working Paper 24-03, The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates: https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp2403
- FRED / U.S. Census Bureau, Rental Vacancy Rate for Massachusetts: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARVAC
- Fortified scan of Facebook Marketplace listings, October 6, 2026 (asking rents as posted by listers, unverified)